Turkish Public Opinion Dynamics Poll for June 2015 General Elections 

RESULTS OF THE COMPARATIVE SURVEY ON VOTERS’ TENDENCIES FOR JUNE 2015 GENERAL ELECTIONS ARE DISCLOSED. THE POLL, COVERING 2201 FACE TO FACE INTERVIEWS AND LED BY PROF. DR. ALİ ÇARKOĞLU FROM THE KOÇ UNIVERSITY, WAS CARRIED OUT WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATION, THE KOÇ UNIVERSITY AND ABD OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY.   
SOME INDICATIONS REVEALED BY THE POLL ARE AS FOLLOWS: 

• THE NUMBER OF VOTERS BELIEVING THAT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IS DETERIORATING ROSE FROM 30% TO 48%.  
• UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC CRISIS RANK THE FIRST AND THE SECOND WITH A RATE OF 39% AND 13% RESPECTIVELY AS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS TURKEY IS FACING. 
• THE AREAS WHERE AKP GOVERNMENT’S PERFORMANCE WAS CONSIDERED BETTER AS COMPARED TO 2011 ARE HEADSCARF PROBLEM, PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES, URBAN TRANSFORMATION, AND THE FALL IN TERRORIST VIOLENCE. 
• THE AREAS WHERE AKP GOVERNMENT’S PERFORMANCE WAS CONSIDERED WEAKER AS COMPARED TO 2011 ARE POVERTY, POLICIES PURSUED AS REGARDS NORTHERN IRAQ-SYRIA, BRIBERY AND CORRUPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EU MEMBERSHIP, KURDISH RECONCILIATION-PEACE PROCESS, UNEMPLOYMENT, SUPREMECY OF LAW, WOMEN’S RIGHTS, PROTECTION OF ENVIRONMENT AND EDUCATION SERVICES.
• 43% OF AKP VOTERS AND 27% OF VOTERS IN GENERAL THINK THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM IS BETTER FOR TURKEY.
• THOSE WHO THINK THAT THERE IS INADEQUATE FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION IN TURKEY ROSE FROM 44% IN 2011 TO 56% IN 2015. 

The results of the Turkish Public Opinion Dynamics Poll for June 2015 General Elections are disclosed. The poll was designed by Prof. Dr. Ali Çarkoğlu, the Dean of the Economic and Administrative Sciences Faculty of the Koç University, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Selim Erdem and Assoc. Prof. Erik Nisbet from the Ohio State University. Prof. Dr. Ersin Kalaycıoğlu from the Sabancı University and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özge Kemahlıoğlu contributed to the preparation phase of the poll supported by the Open Society Foundation, the Koç University and the US Ohio State University.  
During the field survey performed by Frekans Araştırma between 19 March – 26 April 2015, face to face interviews were carried out with 2201 voters from 49 provinces. Participants were chosen from the Address Based Population Registration System by means of random sampling. The results were compared with those obtained during the polls carried out by the same team in 2002, 2007 and 2011 using the same methodology. 
Turkey’s most vital problems and democracy
According to Prof.Dr. Ali Çarkoğlu voters think that the most important problems facing Turkey are linked with economy. “56% of the voters believe that economic difficulties such as unemployment, low income, poverty and economic crisis are primary challenges for Turkey,” he continued. “This rate is considerably close to results obtained in the surveys done before 2007 and 2011 general elections. Although voters’ choice of the party which would best resolve these difficulties depends on the nature of the problem, it seems that AKP emerges to be the one which is more capable in this respect as compared to opposition parties. However CHP and MHP are seen by the voters to be considerably more capable in resolving Turkey’s problems as compared to their perception in 2007 and 2011 polls.”
As for democracy and freedom of expression Prof.Dr. Çarkoğlu summarised the results as follows:
“Today the rate of those in Turkey who are dissatisfied by the performance of democratic mechanisms is 45%. This indicator which we have been monitoring since 2006 was its lowest in 2011 with %33, but constantly rose from then on. The opinion about freedom of expression does not reveal a significant change since 2007; however there appears a considerable polarisation in the context of 2015 in this respect, given the fact that 75% of the voters on the opposition side believe that there is no freedom of expression whereas the same rate is 28% on the part of the AKP voters who are more optimistic about the level of freedom of expression. The number of those who believe that the Turkish state does not respect human rights has steadily risen since 2007, reaching 45% by the year 2015.
Hot topics: Presidential System, the New Constition and the Kurdish Question 
The rate of voters in general who think that presidential system is better for Turkey is 27% as compared to 43% in the case of AKP voters.   
60% believe that Turkey needs a new constitution. This rate rises to 80% in the case of HDP voters. Around one third of voters (66%) think that the ruling and the opposition parties should cooperate for a new constitution. Those who support the idea that the majorty party in the parliament should be able to make any arrangement it deems necessary account for only %18 of the interviewees, while the same rate is 31% among AKP voters.
As regards the Kurdish question, generally speaking, support to steps such as greater empowerment to local governments, a more inclusive citizenship definition in the constitution, general amnesty, and providing service in public instutitions in languages other than Turkish is found to be below 50%. Among the general voters 60% believe that Kurdish political movement’s ultimate aim is an independent Kurdish state, whereas the rate of the same opinion among HDP voters is only 33%.   
Views on the economic situation, the performance of the ruling party 
Prof.Dr. Çarkoğlu drew attention to the distinctive negative trend in voters’ opinion about the economy of Turkey and the ruling party’s performance in this area. “The rate of those believing that economic situation in Turkey is poor is up from 24% in 2013, to 30% in 2014 and now to 48% in 2015,” he continued. “The three topics where voters find AKP rule most successful are the solution of the headscarf issue, public health services and urban transformation projects. The areas which they consider the ruling party most unsuccesful, on the other hand, are unemployment, policies towards Syria, and measures against bribery and corruption.  
Will the elections be held in a fair manner?
The poll revealed a strong polarisation between the voters of the ruling party and those of the opposition parties when it comes to the questions such as whether or not the elections will be held in a fair manner and the counting of the votes will be reliable. 73% of the AKP voters said they believed counting will be reliable whereas the same rate in the case of voters of opposition parties is as low as 23%. 

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